The second Locominar, which took place on 25 November 2020, dealt with the uncertainties in multi-disciplinary modelling.
The online webinar was presented by Dr. Amandine Pastor from FC.ID (Association for the Investigation and Development of Sciences). More than 25 researchers were attending the session.
The LOCOMINAR presented the findings of study by Pastor and three fellow female scientists´ that was published in CATENA under the title: ‘How uncertainties are tackled in multi-disciplinary science? A review of integrated assessments under global change’.
During the webinar, Pastor explained the types of uncertainty (parametric, structural, etc.) in integrated assessment models (IAMs), as well as the main methods to tackle them (multi-scenario, ensemble, etc.).
Finally, she emphasised the important role that uncertainty plays in the design and implementation of efficient policies. However, the results of this study show that uncertainty is not analysed using a uniform approach in IAMs. In particular, specific types of uncertainty analyses are usually applied depending on the field of the model (e.g. energy, economy, etc). In addition, there is a lack of clarity in communicating future projections.
Finally, Pastor provided some recommendations for dealing with uncertainty in IAMs. After the presentation, participants took discussed issues raised by the study presented and how uncertainty could be tackled in LOCOMOTION’s WILIAM model.
As with the first LOCOMINAR, the session was recorded and is publicly available on YouTube (Click here to watch the presentation). In addition, you can download the presentation.