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Modelling global nickel mining, supply, recycling, stocks-in-use and price under different resources and demand assumption for 1850-2200

uthor(s): Anna Hulda Olafsdottir, Harald Ulrik Sverdrup.
The long-term supply of nickel to society was assessed with the WORLD7 model for the global nickel cycle, using new estimates of nickel reserves and resources, indicating that the best estimate of the ultimately recoverable resources for nickel is in the range of 650–720 million ton. This is significantly larger than earlier estimates. The extractable amounts were stratified by extraction cost and ore grade in the model…

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Analysis of the variable renewable energy in the Spanish power system based on kernel probabilistic distributions

Author(s): Gonzalo Parrado Hernando, Fernando A. Frechoso Escudero, Luis Javier Miguel Gonzalez.
The development of renewable energies has been highlighted as a driver of the energy transition towards a more sustainable society. Despite the well-known benefits in health and regional energy resilience when those sources are leveraged, wind- and solar-based technologies bring about flexibility challenges in the power system. The variability in the generation of energy from renewable sources is probably its greatest weakness. This problem can be alleviated in different ways, but a detailed statistical analysis…

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A new accounting framework for assessing forest footprint of nations

Author(s): Iñaki Arto, Ignacio Cazcarro, Eneko Garmendia, Itxasi Ruiz, María J. Sanz.
In a tele-coupled and globalized World, understanding the links between demand for wood products and land use is becoming challenging. World’s economies are increasingly open and interconnected, and international trade flows of wood products are continuously growing. The increasing resource consumption of humanity is increasingly dependent on international trade. In this context, the study of forest products demand from a global-multi-regional perspective emerges as a critical issue to achieve…

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Linking multisectoral economic models and consumption surveys for the European Union

uthor(s): Ignacio Cazcarro, Antonio F. Amores, Iñaki Arto, Kurt Kratena.
Multisectoral models usually have a single representative household. However, more diversity of household types is needed to analyse the effects of multiple phenomena (i.e. ageing, gender inequality, distributional income impact, etc.). Household consumption surveys’ microdata is a rich data source for these types of analysis. However, feeding multisectoral models…

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Just energy transitions to low carbon economies: A review of the concept and its effects on labour and income

Author(s): Pablo García-García, Óscar Carpintero, Luis Buendía.
The global environmental and social crisis has motivated the renaissance of just transitions, this time centred around the effects on labour and income distribution of the shift to a sustainable energy mix. This renewed conception has gone beyond its origins in the US unions in the 1970s to become a key element in many discourses worldwide, with different nuances. Over the last few years, it has found a place in the SDGs and gathered strong support from the ILO. As political frameworks and literature multiply, this work presents…

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Future impacts of ozone driven damages on agricultural systems

Author(s): Jon Sampedro, Stephanie T. Waldhoff, Dirk-Jan Van de Ven, Guillermo Pardo, Rita Van Dingenen, Iñaki Arto, Agustín del Prado, Maria José Sanz.
Current ozone (O3) concentration levels entail significant damages in crop yields around the world. The reaction of the emitted precursors (mostly methane and nitrogen oxides) with solar radiation contribute to O3 levels that exceed established thresholds for crop damage. This paper shows current and projected…

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Coupling circularity performance and climate action: From disciplinary silos to transdisciplinary modelling science

Author(s): Alexandros Nikas, Georgios Xexakis, , Konstantinos Koasidis, José Acosta-Fernández, Iñaki Arto, Alvaro Calzadilla, Teresa Domenech, Ajay Gambhir, Stefan Giljum, Mikel Gonzalez-Eguino, Andrea Herbst, Olga Ivanova, Mariësse A. E.van Sluisveld, Dirk-JanVan De Ven, Anastasios Karamaneas, Haris Doukas
Technological breakthroughs and policy measures targeting energy efficiency and clean energy alone will not suffice to deliver Paris Agreement-compliant greenhouse gas emissions trajectories in the next decades. Strong cases have recently been made…

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Flexibility index and decreasing the costs in energy systems with high share of renewable energy

thor(s): Antun Pfeifer, Luka Herc, Ilija Batas Bjelic, Neven Duic.
Recent European Green Deal includes decision to become carbon neutral and even carbon negative region in order to tackle the climate crisis. Main technical challenge and a key factor in techno-economic analysis of the energy system of the future, based on variable renewable energy sources, is their variable production and its integration. In order to…

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The potential land requirements and related land use change emissions of solar energy

Author(s): Dirk‑Jan van de Ven, Iñigo Capellan‑Peréz, Iñaki Arto, Ignacio Cazcarro, Carlos de Castro, Pralit Patel, Mikel Gonzalez‑Eguino.
Although the transition to renewable energies will intensify the global competition for land, the potential impacts driven by solar energy remain unexplored. In this work, the potential solar land requirements and related land use change emissions are computed for the EU, India, Japan and South Korea. A novel method…

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Perspective of comprehensive and comprehensible multi-model energy and climate science in Europe

Author(s): Alexandros Nikas, Ajay Gambhir, Evelina Trutnevyte, Konstantinos Koasidis, Henrik Lund, Jakob Z. Thellufsen, Daniel Mayer, Georg Zachmann, Luis Javier Miguel González, Noelia Ferreras-Alonso, Ida Sognnaes, Glen P. Peters, Emanuela Colombo, Mark Howells, Adam Hawkes, Machteld van den Broek, Dirk-Jan Van de Ven, Mikel Gonzalez-Eguino, Alexandros Flamos, Haris Doukas.
Europe’s capacity to explore the envisaged pathways that achieve its near- and long-term energy and climate objectives needs to be significantly enhanced. In this perspective, we discuss how this capacity is supported…

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The development of an environmental module in the global integrated assessment Model WILIAM

Author(s): Amandine Valerie Pastor, Tiago Capela Lourenço, Noelia Ferreras-Alonso, Ivan Ramos-Diez, Stavroula Papagianni, Alexandros Adam, Roger Samsó, Santi Sabaté, Jordi Solé Ollé, Robert Oakes, Tiziano Distefano, Harald Ulrik Sverdrup, Margarita Mediavilla, Gonzalo Parrado, Nathalie Wergles, Luis Javier Miguel.
his poster presents the preliminary version of the WILIAM environmental module considering the different modelling approaches and assumptions that will be developed. The environmental module…

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Energy system flexibility for renewable energy variability in IAMs

Author(s): Ilija Batas Bjelic, Nikola Rajakovic, Neven Duic, Antun Pfeifer, Iñigo Capellán-Pérez, Fernando Frechoso, Alexandros Adam.
his poster focuses on the representation of the Variable Renewable Energy Supply (VRES) in the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) which includes the hourly variability of renewable energy modelled in the EnergyPLAN software. Hourly effects of the integration have been accessed. Finally, flexibility options…

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Global transportation decarbonization pathways considering lifestyle change and mineral availabilities

hor(s): Daniel Pulido Sánchez, Iñigo Capellán-Pérez, Ignacio de Blas Sanz.
The global increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the depletion of good quality oil reserves are two of the greatest challenges facing humanity today. The research developed in this poster uses the MEDEAS-World system dynamics model in order to know the viability of the electrified transport technologies and the use of minerals…

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The limits of transport decarbonization under the current growth paradigm

ublication type: Research article.
Author(s): Ignacio de Blas, Margarita Mediavilla, Iñigo Capellán-Pérez, Carmen Duce.
Achieving ambitious reductions in greenhouse gases (GHG) is particularly challenging for transportation due to the technical limitations of replacing oil-based fuels. We apply the integrated assessment model MEDEAS-World to study four global transportation decarbonization strategies for 2050. The results show that a massive replacement of oil-fueled individual vehicles to electric ones alone cannot deliver GHG reductions consistent with climate stabilization and could result in the scarcity of some key minerals…

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Standard, Point of Use, and Extended Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI) from Comprehensive Material Requirements of Present Global Wind, Solar, and Hydro Power Technologies

Author(s): Carlos de Castro, Iñigo Capellán-Pérez.
Whether renewable energy sources (RES) will provide sufficient energy surplus to entirely power complex modern societies is under discussion. We contribute to this debate by estimating the current global average energy return on energy invested (EROI) for the five RES technologies with the highest potential of electricity generation from the comprehensive and internally consistent estimations of their material requirements at three distinct energy system boundaries: standard farm-gate (EROIst), final at consumer point-of-use (EROIfinal), and extended (including indirect investments, EROIext). EROIst levels found fall within the respective literature ranges. Expanding the boundaries…

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